Pete: Hey guys, it’s Pete de Jong and Katelyn Brecio here with RE/MAX for another Calgary real estate market update.
This is for March of 2024. And we’re going to talk a little bit about inventory versus demand. Supply versus demand. In other words, we’re going to talk about the effect of that on pricing and how that’s affecting different segments and that kind of thing. We’re going to talk also about what areas of the city are outperforming other areas.
And who knows, we might just bash Trudeau a little bit too, but we’ll see how that goes.
Katelyn: We’ll spill the tea on him.
Pete: Kate’s got her tea. Yes.
And actually, you know, before I even start, Kate, welcome back.
Katelyn: Oh, thank you.
Pete: Nice to have you working with me again.
Katelyn: Thank you very much. Yeah. Yeah, it’s been a, it’s been a wild ride the last couple months.
Pete: Well, Kate’s usually away, so it’s nice, you know, I, I get a lot of negative feedback when she’s not here because you have to look at my ugly face and as I do the market update, but now Kate’s back.
So I, I think the level of Professionalism and all that stuff is gonna be a bit of an uptick now.
Katelyn: I thought I’d bless you with my presence once in a while.
Pete: Thank you. Thank you. Yes. I’m sure you’ve got another beach planned in the next little while, so.
Katelyn: I wish.
Pete: All good.
Katelyn: After looking at the weather outside.
Pete: Oh, it’s brutal. Yeah, the never ending winter. Anyways, what else is never ending is price increases in Calgary, and that’s because We’re seeing sales go up about 10%, new listings come down about 4.5%. That’s leaving us with a bit of an inventory problem, isn’t it?
Katelyn: Yeah, we’re, we’re down 22% compared to last year for inventory, which brings down our months of supply to not even a month’s worth.
Pete: We’ve got less than a month’s worth of supply. And remember last year, we were complaining last year about how little inventory we had.
Katelyn: And here we are. So. Don’t complain.
Pete: Yes, don’t. Well, you know what, I mean, this is a housing crisis, especially for buyers, and even within buyers, especially first time buyers.
I think about my four kids, and I don’t know how they’re ever going to afford a house. And I don’t want them moving back with me, if I can help it. Maybe one. Anyways,
Katelyn: we’ve got a favorite.
Pete: Yeah, well, maybe. But you know, they’re all my favorites. So anyways yes, yes. But you know, when, when we look at what’s going on with respect to supply versus demand, it really is affecting different market segments more than others, isn’t it?
Katelyn: Yes, it is. Let’s look at the benchmark prices actually. Let’s look at the benchmark prices for each of the segments. So let’s start off with the detached. The detach is actually up 14%.
Pete: So detached are up 14% and you know, the good thing about looking at a benchmark price as opposed to an average is the average isn’t going up nearly as quickly as the benchmark is because we’re just selling more and more of the lower cost inventory, the lower cost supply, which keeps the average going up a little bit slower than the benchmark price was.
So, yeah, as Kate mentioned, detached are up 14.5 or sorry, 14% the semi detached, which is not, not townhouses, but like a half duplex, these kinds of places. There’s not a lot of sales in those but there’s even less inventory. Like we saw in March, we saw a sales to listing ratio of the semi detached market of about 96%, which is like, you know, if you’re got a semi detached and you listed at you had a 96% chance of selling it. So it was that market, especially, like I said, it’s a small market, but that market performed really, really well. But then as you get into the cheaper stuff, I hate using the word cheaper, but it really is. I mean, when you look at townhouses and apartments, they’re really the ones that have increased the most, right?
Katelyn: Oh, well, townhouses the most, actually. It’s increased up to 20% compared to what it was last year. Yeah. Yeah. So that’s about $448,000 actually.
Pete: Yeah. And, and apartments are up 17%. So what’s interesting is, you know, once in a while you hear people saying we’re building a, you know, we’re always being forced to build too many of these multi resident, you know, like there’s a huge market for these, especially at times like this, when, you know, people are viewing interest rates are being high.
I don’t think they actually are high. I mean, if you look at them, Historically, these are pretty normal rates, but I guess when the expectation is that they’re going to be coming down you know, people don’t want to spend money on the million dollar properties and those ones are really still having a bit of an issue, right?
We’re seeing lower inventory in them, but…
Katelyn: Exactly. Anything over the $700,000 mark is having the issues of selling right now.
Pete: Yeah. It’s almost like we have two markets in Calgary, you know, like there’s, there’s the market under $600,000 or $700,000 and then the market over that, and they’re not the same.
So one market’s acting entirely different. The other one way to tell that is of course, when you look at different areas of the city.
Katelyn: Yeah, exactly. So let’s talk about the different areas of the city right now. So the area that’s actually doing the best, that’s at an increase of pretty much 25% of that benchmark price from what it was last year is the East.
So we’re talking Forest Lawn area what else is in that area? Dover. Yep.
Pete: Pembroke. Yes. All that kind of, yeah, and that, that stuff. And again, it’s got to do with the value of those properties. You know, they’re, they’re affordable. You know, so I should say that more affordable, not cheaper, but the more affordable inventory is the stuff that’s boy, I tell you, that’s where the excitement is right now.
Of course, if you look downtown, we’re only up about 5.5%. So compared to 25% and this, I always think this is interesting being in real estate for as long as I have, I’ve been in real estate longer. I’m probably real estate longer than even a life.
Katelyn: Almost.
Pete: Yep.
I’ve been in real estate two thirds of your life, over two thirds of your life I’ve been selling real estate. Yeah. I’ll let, I’ll let people figure out how old Kate is at that because I know, I know she looks like she’s 18, I know she looks like she’s 18, she’s not, she’s way older.
Katelyn: Yeah, I am very much way older than that.
Pete: Anyways sorry, where were we going? We were in the middle of saying something.
Katelyn: Oh, you were talking about the city center. You were talking about the prices there.
Pete: Yeah. But I have no idea where I was going.
Katelyn: You were talking about real estate and how, you know, it’s funny that I’ve been in real estate for this long.
Pete: Yes. What I was saying was it’s interesting to me that, you know, years ago, people always say, well, whatever you do, don’t ever buy in Forest Lawn or Dover, whatever. Like even as an investment property, you know what? I always said the rents there are as high as anywhere else. And people that did invest in places like Forest Lawn and Dover have actually seen the biggest equity gain of anywhere in the city.
So it’s like, it’s actually, I believe it’s still a good area to invest in, especially when you see what they’ve been doing in Forest Lawn. With respect to international avenue and that kind of stuff. So yeah. Gentrifying the neighborhood a little bit. We’ll see where it goes. But anyways, getting a little bit off topic.
Just in terms of some Trudeau bashing, I was watching the news again this morning, and he’s throwing another hundreds of millions and billions at this problem. I think, he’s got, he’s throwing everything at it but the kitchen sink. I think you know, duck if you see something in the next little while, because it might be the kitchen sink.
The reality is what we really need is immigration reform, you know, especially in the next little while where we’re, we’re, you know, purposely bringing in people that can build houses and, and kind of limiting it a little bit to, to stuff like that, but, and of course, you know, reducing the gatekeepers, I think, you know, I think I’m showing my cards here, but I think Poilievre on track in terms of, you know, reducing the amount of red tape and stuff like that.
It’s hard to build a home now in Calgary or in Alberta or in Canada. There’s just so many hoops you have to jump through and so many forms to fill out and that kind of stuff that it’s, we’ve made it really, really hard to do. So anyways, until that happens, I don’t see the market changing too much in the next little while.
What we are still seeing is a lot of people moving here from. Ontario and Vancouver. And so, I think prices will continue to escalate for a while. I did do a report this morning for some other people where and it’s a report that I normally send out every Thursday. I’m a day late this week.
But where I look at sales to listing ratios on a weekly basis, and I did note on there that we’ve seen, we actually are seeing higher inventory levels now in in detached houses and in townhouses than we’ve seen all year. So inventory is very slowly starting to climb up a little bit.
Katelyn: That’s good to hear.
Pete: It’s hard to tell this soon whether that’s a blip or the beginning of a trend, but. Time will tell if you want to know what’s going on in your neighborhood, though, or your type of home get ahold of Katelyn or me. We’re happy to help you anytime, whether it’s a bungalow in Beddington or a two story in Tuscany or a Condo in Canyon Meadows.
Wow, that was Yeah, yeah Anyways, no matter where you’re living or what kind of place you’re living in if you want to track your entire Or track your market for your type of home. The best idea is like I said get a hold of us Let us know what it is our email our emails will be on this video here somewhere I’m sure Marley when she edits this we’ll we’ll put them probably right here Here?
Here? Here? No, no, I think here. Here? This is the best place, like between us. We’ll see what Marley does, but you can email either one of us with, like I said, the type of home you’re living in, whether it’s a bungalow or two story or a four level split, where you are in the city and that kind of stuff, and then we’ll set you up with a report that is just Like narrowly defined to, to what your place is.
You can really start to watch it and see what’s going on. And then the other thing I’d recommend is if you’re considering moving even in six months or a year, but you want to start watching the market that you’re going to be buying into, we can do the same thing there as well. So Katelyn and I actually really like doing reports.
We like charts and graphs and, and understanding what’s going on in different market segments. So by all means, get in touch with us and we’re we’re happy to help you with that. That being said thanks for watching our little market update. Don’t forget to like, we got, we got a like and then
Katelyn: Subscribe, share, comment,
Pete: Four things.
Katelyn: Yes. Yeah four things, got to mention all the things.
Pete: Okay. So if you like and you subscribe and you share and you comment. lunch with me or Kate, your choice. So on us, that’s all you got to do. Like one person will do like, imagine we had like 1000 people did that. I don’t imagine we had 1000 people watch our video.
But no, if you do that, you we’re going to enter you into a draw. to have lunch with Kate or me. So, yeah, and I know it’s going to be. Yeah. And it’s like, no one’s going to choose me, but it’s all good. It’s all good. Anyways. Thanks again for watching until next time. Call us anytime. We’re happy to help.
Thanks so much.
Hey, and Katelyn just reminded me, this is like an add on to our little video, a little add on Kate reminded me, we forgot to talk about the highest price sale and the lowest price sale that happened in Calgary so far this year. So which one do you want to do?
Katelyn: I’ll do the lowest price sale.
Pete: Okay. If you’ll do that, then I’ll do the highest price and you’ll do the highest. That makes sense. Yeah. That makes Yeah, we’re such logical, my, such logical people.
Katelyn: So the lowest price to sell was, I feel like we talk about this area often when we are talking about this segment. It’s sold for under, you can still buy something for under $130,000 here in Calgary. If you can believe that. It’s sold in Chinatown. It was a 300 something square foot, you called it a walk in closet.
Pete: It’s basically a walk in closet with a kitchen and a bathroom in Chinatown.
Katelyn: Yeah. And it’s sold for $128,000.
Pete: $128k. Can you imagine that? Like, and it kind of, it’s, I was thinking it’s kind of cool because it’s about the same size as like, you know, your, your average travel trailer. Yes. And it’s about the same price too, except it’s just not mobile. Anyways. Yeah. And then the most expensive one sold in Lakeview, it was a gorgeous home. Like it really was. It was beautiful. That one sold for $5.2million. And what I thought was interesting about that one too, was the realtor’s name was something. I can’t remember her first name. Do you?
Katelyn: Was it veronica?
Pete: And then her last name though, was interesting to me as a Dutch guy because her last name was Housman. Which is literally translated houseman. So, but a houseman in Calgary is, or in Holland actually, is like a farmer that owns his own farm or something like that. It’s a particular designation. But it’s interesting that there’s a realtor named houseman. I thought it would be even better if it was a houseman.
Yeah. Yeah. Houseman the housewoman, you know, but anyways, we’ve promoted her name long enough now. Again, I’m Pete de Jong. This is Katelyn Brecio. We’re with Remax Professionals. Our numbers and emails and everything else will appear above or below our names or above and below our video below, probably below.
Yeah. Anyways, again, call us anytime. Happy to chat.
Katelyn: Bye guys.
Pete: Bye.
March reflects strong seller’s market and price increases
March sales rose to 2,664 units, a 10 per cent year-over-year gain and much higher than long-term trends. While new listings did pick up over last month, the 3,172 units were still below what we typically see in March and not enough relative to sales to drive any change in the supply situation. In March, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, and the months of supply fell below one month.
“We have not seen March conditions this tight since 2006, which is also the last time we reported high levels of interprovincial migration and a months-of-supply below one month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “Moreover, we are entering the third consecutive year of a market favouring the seller as the two-year spike in migration has driven up demand and contributed to the drop in re-sale and rental supply. Given supply adjustments take time, it is not a surprise that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices.”
Inventory levels have declined across properties priced below $1,000,000, with the steepest declines occurring for homes priced below $500,000. In March, there were 2,532 units in inventory, 22 per cent lower than last year and half the levels we traditionally see in March.
In March, the unadjusted total residential benchmark price rose to $597,600, a two per cent gain over last month and nearly 11 per cent higher than last year. Prices have increased across all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for the relatively more affordable row and apartment-style homes.
Detached
Detached home sales rose in March but were likely limited by the level of new listings coming onto the market. New listings in March were 1,386 units, compared to the 1,151 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to rise to 83 per cent. Inventories also remained relatively stable compared to last month but were 24 per cent lower than last year’s levels and nearly 60 per cent lower than long-term trends for March. Inventory levels dropped across all price ranges, but the most significant fall was in the lower price point. Overall, 71 per cent of the available inventory in March was priced above $700,000.
Low inventories compared to sales caused the months of supply to drop below one month, driving further price gains. The unadjusted detached benchmark price rose to $739,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and a year-over-year gain of 14 per cent. The largest year-over-year gains occurred in the most affordable North East and East districts.
Semi-Detached
Supply availability continues to weigh on the semi-detached sector of the market. In March, 260 new listings were met with 250 sales, causing the sale-to-new listings ratio to rise to 96 per cent. This prevented inventories from improving, and the months of supply dropped below one month. Inventory declines have been driven mainly by properties priced below $600,000.
Limited supply and growing demand drove further price gains in March. The unadjusted benchmark price reached $658,000, nearly three per cent higher than last month and a 14 per cent gain over last March. Prices rose across all districts in the city, with year-over-year gains ranging from a low of 11 per cent in the highest-priced area of the City Centre to 25 per cent in the lowest-priced market in the East district.
Row
Both sales and new listings rose in March. However, with 536 new listings and 449 sales, the sales-to-new listings ratio rose to 84 per cent, preventing any significant monthly change in inventory levels. With 355 units available, inventory levels were 12 per cent below last year’s and 53 per cent below long-term trends for March. The decline in inventory levels was driven by properties priced below $400,000, as inventory levels rose 35 per cent for units priced above $400,000.
The unadjusted benchmark price trended up in March, reaching $448,700, a monthly gain of nearly three per cent and over 20 per cent higher than levels reported at this time last year. The higher-priced City Centre reported the slowest growth in benchmark prices, with the highest growth reported in the city’s most affordable districts.
Apartment Condominium
Sales in March reached 814 units, contributing to the first quarter’s record-high sales of 1,940 units, nearly 31 per cent higher than last year. New listings also improved throughout the first three months of the year, but with a March sales-to-new-listings ratio of 82 per cent and a months-of-supply of one month, conditions favoured apartment condominium sellers.
Demand for lower-priced homes has supported the growth of apartment-style properties, but the tight conditions have also contributed to further price gains. In March, the benchmark prices reached $337,700, over two per cent higher than last month and 17 per cent higher than levels reported last March.
REGIONAL MARKET FACTS
Airdrie
March reported 203 sales and 218 new listings. While both new listings and sales improved, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of 93 per cent, inventory levels were 22 per cent below last year and 56 per cent below typical March levels.
With less than one month of supply, it is not surprising that we continue to see upward pressure on home prices. In March, the benchmark price reached $540,400, a monthly gain of two per cent and a year-over-year increase of over nine per cent. Prices improved across all property types, with stronger year-over-year gains for the relatively lower-priced row and apartment-style products.
Cochrane
Following a slower start to the year, sales in March rose to nearly the same level of new listings coming onto the market, pushing the sales-to-new listings ratio up to 99 per cent. This also contributed to further declines in inventory levels, and the months of supply dropped to just over one month.
As of March, the total residential benchmark price reached $555,300, a monthly gain of over one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nearly 12 per cent. Prices rose across all property types, and detached prices pushed above $650,000 for the first time.
Okotoks
Okotoks continues to struggle with supply as the 71 new listings that came on the market this month were met with 65 sales, preventing any improvement in inventory levels. There were only 54 units available in March, a year-over-year decline of 10 per cent and nearly 70 per cent below long-term trends for the month.
Limited supply and strong sales caused the months of supply to fall below one month, and March was the lowest March reported since 2006. Persistently tight conditions drove further price growth this month, as the total residential benchmark price rose to $610,700, a monthly gain of one per cent and a year-over-year increase of nine per cent. Prices have been rising for all property types, with the most significant year-over-year gains occurring for semi-detached and row properties.
Click here to view the full City of Calgary monthly stats package.
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